Raddon Report

Raddon Report

Thursday, October 3, 2019
Bill Handel

By now, you’ve likely heard discussion of a possible oncoming economic recession. The talk of an inverted yield curve and its predictive ability regarding recessions has been bandied about in the financial as well as the mainstream press.

Is a recession likely? The answer is an unqualified yes. But then again, the answer to that question is always yes. The real question is when it will come. And a related question is how severe it will be.

Thursday, September 12, 2019
Andrew Vahrenkamp

It’s that time of year! Time to prepare for next year and to plan for the annual Raddon Conference, held in Chicago on November 4th to 6th. Given all the uncertainty about the economy and rate environment, we hope to shine a light on the way forward for you. Here are five big strategic questions for us to answer as we plan for 2020:

Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Marcus Rothaar

Each year, Raddon brings together many of the industry’s top leaders and visionaries to our invitation-only CEO Forum. This year’s event took place earlier this month in Dana Point, California, with more than 75 executives collaborating for two days of engaging and interactive discussions with their peers. Join us as we reflect back on some of the key takeaways from the 2019 Raddon CEO Forum.

Thursday, May 2, 2019
Marcus Rothaar

Raddon recently hit the road for a series of workshops with participants in our Performance Analytics program. We hosted sessions in 17 cities east of the Mississippi, meeting with over 500 financial services executives along the way. (Note: We’ll be visiting the western half of the country in June; registration is now open for those sessions.)

Thursday, February 28, 2019
Bill Handel

2018 was a good year for the economy generally and for the financial services industry.  We experienced reasonably good GDP growth, especially in the second and third quarters, and we spent the entire year at an unemployment rate of 4% or lower.  In the financial services sector, loan growth continued at a strong pace, to the point that many financial institutions are facing liquidity concerns and for the first time in over a decade are engaged in deposit wars.  Earnings also improved for the majority of financial institutions, a result of improving net interest margins helped by four rate

Thursday, February 7, 2019
Bill Handel

Every year Raddon publishes our set of predictions for the upcoming year.  Many publications offer predictions.  However, we also review the accuracy of our predictions one year later, which makes us somewhat unique in the realm of prognostication. 

Here are the predictions we offered up one year ago, along with an assessment of our foresight. Overall, our crystal ball was fairly clear.

Thursday, December 20, 2018
Bill Handel

In a not unexpected development, the Federal Reserve raised short term interest rates again at its Wednesday meeting this week.  This is the ninth rate hike since December 2015, and the fourth in 2018.  At the meeting, the Federal Reserve also indicated that the pace of rate increases is likely to slow in 2019.  What this means exactly is not certain, but the likelihood of four or even three rate increases in 2019 is not high.  In fact, 11 of 17 officials expect no more than two rate increases next year.

Thursday, December 6, 2018
Andrew Vahrenkamp

What a Conference!

Another Raddon conference is in the books, and what an event it was! So many factors came together to make it exceptional – insightful keynote speakers, engaging breakout sessions, Raddon Rocket cocktails, reasonably good Chicago weather – that everyone involved had a blast.

If you didn’t make it this year, be sure to plan for next year’s event. In the meantime, here are seven key takeaways from the 2018 conference about the industry and the economy.

Thursday, August 2, 2018
Bill Handel

The release last week by the Commerce Department that GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.1% in the second quarter was notable for several reasons.  First, as widely noted, this was the strongest economic growth seen since 2014.  Second, both consumer spending and business investment remained strong, with non-residential fixed investment up 7.3%.  Perhaps most symbolically, the U.S. is now at $20 trillion in annualized GDP. 

Thursday, February 8, 2018
Bill Handel

Early in 2017 we compiled our predictions for the upcoming year.  These were a mix of economic and industry predictions.  How accurate were these predictions? 
As it turns out, we were mostly on the mark in our predictions, at least in terms of direction if not always in magnitude.  Here is a review of our 2017 predictions and an assessment of the accuracy of each.

Thursday, January 25, 2018
Greg Ulankiewicz

In December, Raddon held its quarterly seminars for participants in the Performance Analytics program.  This program provides financial institutions with comprehensive analytics and peer benchmarks that measure performance across all areas of the organization and helps guide strategic initiatives.  The workshops facilitate a review of the latest research findings and offer a platform for discussing how financial institutions can respond to the challenges they face today.

Thursday, January 11, 2018
Bill Handel

2017 proved to be a good year for the U.S. from an economic perspective and for the financial industry as well, with new record highs achieved in the stock market, much stronger GDP growth - especially in the second and third quarters, and continued improvement in real estate sales and values.  The industry showed continued improvement in earnings and also continued strong loan growth. 

Thursday, November 16, 2017
Bill Handel

Raddon held its first-ever national research conference in Chicago November 6-8.  The three day event was attended by over 250 C-level and marketing professionals from banks and credit unions across the United States, and the content featured Raddon’s own proprietary national consumer and small business research as well as several very informative keynote speakers and panelists.

Thursday, September 14, 2017
Bill Handel

Bill Handel, VP of Research and Chief Economist at Raddon, identifies positive trends in today's economy and discusses some potential danger signs to look out for.

Thursday, June 8, 2017
Bill Handel

While the election in November and resulting change in administration has been polarizing politically, it has simultaneously triggered a degree of enthusiasm among investors, consumers and small businesses.  This optimism is not seemingly driven by improvement in current economic activity, but instead seems to reflect a sense of greater optimism for the longer term. 

Thursday, January 26, 2017
Bill Handel

As we had surmised in our predictions for  2016 article,  2016 did indeed turn out to be an interesting year in many ways – with nothing more interesting than November’s election results.  So how did we fare in our predictions for 2016? This article will take a quick look back at last year’s predictions to assess the accuracy of our crystal ball.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017
Bill Handel

What a difference a couple of months can make.  In the aftermath of the election, we have seen the stock market accelerate, consumer confidence soar, and small businesses assume a much greater level of optimism.  We have seen the Fed announce a significant change in its interest rate policy.  Due largely to December sales volume, 2016 was the single biggest year in new auto sales history.  In general, we are experiencing a sense of optimism we haven’t seen in nearly a decade.

Thursday, November 17, 2016
Patrick Bator (Retired)

The Presidential election is finally behind us and we have seen, to this point, that the stock market has responded in a positive fashion, perhaps reflecting a belief that the business environment may be more favorable going forward.  However, we must be cognizant of the underlying consumer mindset as we move into 2017.

Friday, February 5, 2016
Bill Handel

As 2016 unfolds, the challenges just keep on coming. Whether caused by geopolitical, economic or other factors, there is enough uncertainty to keep even the most intrepid prognosticator silent. Regardless, the Raddon Report continues its tradition of annual predictions.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Bill Handel

Now that 2015 is in the rearview window, it’s time to review how well Raddon fared in our annual economic predictions. How accurate were the predictions we made at the start of the year?